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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

2014's BREAKOUT Fantasy Football Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen

Every year we see it. A wide receiver that did relatively little the year before, comes out of nowhere to blow up the scene! Nobody drafts him high (or at all), because he wasn't on most of our radars due to his pedestrian or nonexistent performance the year prior, and it ends up being a free agency or waiver wire battle just to nab him. Wouldn't it be nice to take this guy with one of your late round draft picks?

In 2009, he was Sidney Rice with the Vikings (he went from 141 yards in 2008, to 1,312 yards in 2009).

In 2010, he was Brandon Lloyd with the Broncos (he went from 117 yards in 2009, to 1,448 yards in 2010).

In 2011, he was Victor Cruz with the Giants (he went from 0 yards in 2010, to 1,536 yards in 2011).

In 2012, it wasn't quite the splash we'd seen in previous years. The Jaguars' Cecil Shorts III was the guy that made a good enough of a splash to be our Breakout from 2012.

In 2013, we a HUGE "Breakout" performance.  His name is Keenan Allen. Normally we don't include rookies in this column, but because this rookie was ranked so poorly, nobody really drafted this guy, which is why he was a big-time BREAKOUT!  ESPN had him ranked as the 68th WR, that's how under-valued this guy was.  And all he did was finish with 70 catches, 1000 yards, and 8 TD's!

We also have to mention 2 other HIGHLY UNDER-VALUED players from 2013. Neither player "came out of nowhere", but we chose to mention them because they were ranked so very low.  Both of these WR's were ranked in the 40's among WR's, and both finished as Top 5 WR's.  Josh Gordon, finished as the #1 Fantasy WR, and Alshon Jeffery wasn't very far behind.  So because of guys like Gordon and Jeffery, we're not only going to be looking for the "out of nowhere" guys, we're also going to try and help you to find the "highly undervalued" guys!

Before we look at our 2014 WR's, if you need a professional-grade Draft Tool, visit our website here http://www.fantasyfootballaddict.com/Announcements.html and grab our Draft Tool/Guide and "Next Level" rankings for only $7!

Arizona Cardinals -  Fitzy will be the 1st Arizona WR to go off the board, and Michael Floyd, won't be far behind him. I don't see our guy here in Arizona, because behind these 2 is just Ted Ginn.  I think Fitzy and Floyd will both be 1000+ yard receivers, but no other Arizona WR's are worth drafting.

Atlanta Falcons - Julio Jones is back and will be drafted in the top 10 of WR's. Tony Gonzalez retired, and Roddy White is going to be picked as a top 20 WR.  Last year I said "our breakout candidate simply isn't a Falcon, it's not possible unless White or Jones suffers a season ending injury".  And that's exactly what happened, Julio got hurt, and Harry Douglas got 1000 yards.  But this year, much like last year, only White and Jones are worthy of drafting.

Baltimore Ravens - Torrey Smith is getting drafted pretty high. Steve Smith comes over from the Panthers, and is penciled in as the #2. He is getting drafted as a WR5, but I think he has value as a good WR4.  That leaves us Marlon Brown. He's not totally breakout material simply because he caught 50 catches last year. But he is so severely undervalued right now, he's not even being drafted. However, maybe there's a reason he's undervalued. Kubiak made light use of the #3 WR in Houston, so that should tell us something. And that is, no breakout here.

Buffalo Bills - It's all based on how good of a year Manuel has at QB. Stevie Johnson is gone, and rookie Sammy Watkins is the new #1. Woods and former Buc Mike Williams are the next in line. Woods is getting taken as a WR7, if at all. Nobody is drafting Williams. He only had 22 catches with the Bucs in 2013, so if he hits 1000 yards here in 2014, that's a BREAKOUT performance. Remember, he had 996 yards and 9 TD's 2 years ago.  It's not a stretch to think that he could do that here in 2014. But, he has a surgically repaired hammy, so I don't see 1000 yards for him in 2014.  He may get a bunch of TD's though.

Carolina Panthers - Steve Smith is gone, and they drafted Kelvin Benjamin as their #1 WR.  Now, Benjamin is currently ranked on ESPN as the 76th WR.  Cotchery is actually ranked higher, but not by much, at 66.  That's pretty much in the "undrafted" territory.  Jason Avant is penciled in as the #3 guy in Carolina, but the Philly vet isn't worth a look on draft day.  If you remember, Cotchery was actually productive in 2013 up in Pittsburgh, with 10 TD's and 600 yards.  So he's no "Breakout" candidate, but he may be slightly undervalued.  I think Benjamin is a "low risk" pick, but even though he's ranked so low on ESPN, in most drafts, he's like the 50th WR.  So in 10 team leagues, that's still a WR5 or WR6.  He's certainly worth a look in later rounds, since the WR depth in Carolina is so dismal.

Chicago Bears - Obviously, Jeffery and Marshall will both be drafted pretty early. Both are going to get a ton of targets, and TE Bennett will get about 60 catches.  Matt Forte will catch about 70 balls. Jay Cutler is not Peyton Manning.  So there ya go.  These are the only offensive players that you should draft here in 2014 for da Bears.

Cincinatti Bengals - So, we have a decent QB in Dalton, and we have super-stud A.J. Green as the go-to pass catcher. TE's Gresham and Tyler Eifert are going to get some targets. The way I see it, there's room for 1 WR to potentially sneak in and get a lot of targets. The problem here is that there are 2 good WR options outside of Green, and if both of these options share this pool of targets, EACH OF THEM will end up with around 500-600 yards and maybe 4 TD's. Now, if only one of them can steal most of the targets, then we may have something here! Option 1 is Marvin Jones, he is already being drafted as a low-end WR4. The other guy to consider is Mohammed Sanu, because he's listed currently as the WR3, and he's not getting drafted currently, and remember, he got 47 catches last year. If he somehow steals from Marvin Jones, gets to like 60 catches for 700 yards and 5 TD's, he'd be a decent WR5.  But not a breakout.

Cleveland Browns - Well, Josh Gordon is likely suspended for the season. Miles Austin is now listed as the #1 WR in Cleveland, but we all know that his hamstring won't allow that.  Andrew Hawkins is the #2, coming over from Cincy.  He is getting drafted as a low-end WR6.  That is a severe under-valuing.  Even-though that's not technically breakout material, since he's still on our radars, but for god's sake, grab him as a WR5 and he may just finish as a top 20 WR in 2014. 

Dallas Cowboys - Everybody is in love with Dez Bryant so he'll go in the 1st round in many drafts this year.  Miles Austin is gone. Witten will still be a major factor in the pass game. But with Austin struggling to stay healthy the last few years, I think there's a real opportunity for Dwayne Harris to have a "breakout" campaign. Terrence Williams had a good 2013, 730 yards and 5 TD's. It's not a stretch to think that he may do better in 2014.  But he's being picked currently as the 36th WR off the board, so he's on the radar as a low-end WR3.  But Cole Beasley, he interests me.  He's not being drafted in the top 80 WR's, meaning nobody is really drafting him at all. He quietly grabbed 40 catches and 2 TD's in 2013.  If he somehow ups that production to maybe 60 catches and 5 TD's, he's a 4 catch per game guy that you can use as a functional bye week plug-and-play.  But no, not a "breakout" guy here. 

Denver Broncos - OK. Well, there's Demaryius Thomas. There's Wes Welker. There's Julius Thomas. Sanders is being taken as a WR3, but I see him as a WR4, he's over-valued.  Cody Latimer is under-valued right now. He could easily come close to Keenan Allen numbers in 2014.  This is less about my love for Latimer, than it is my relative lack of trust in Sanders.

Detroit Lions - So what we know for sure, is that Stafford will throw a ton of passes. Calvin Johnson will continue to be the primary beneficiary of that arm. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell combined for 100+ catches in 2013.  Stafford will complete about 380 passes in 2014.  190 will go to Calvin and the RB's.  The TE's, Pettigrew and Ebron, they're going to combine for 60 catches.  That leaves 130 catches.  30 catches will go to a few random WR's like Durham and Broyles.  So competing for those 100 remaining catches, are Golden Tate and Kevin Ogletree. Tate is being taken as the 30th WR, so he's on our radar's.  If Ogletree could somehow grab 65 of those catches, and 6 TD's while he's at it, he wouldn't be a breakout, but he'd be a big bargain.  But chances are, it's Tate who gets 65 catches, while Ogletree gets 35.  No "breakout" here in Detroit.

Green Bay Packers - Well, let's face it. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson will get drafted in the earlier rounds. Jarrett Boykin will get drafted, but he's currently coming off the board as the 50th WR.  Boykin is a sneaky grab in the later rounds, but chances are he'll put up James Jones-Lite numbers. Davante Adams has a shot at being a great WR in the NFL, but as a rookie, that could be tough. Then again, the Packers don't have a good TE, so maybe there's a chance that 4 WR's thrive in this offense. After all, Aaron Rodgers will throw 350 completions. Each of these guys could walk away with 75 catches each, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit. That means, Boykin is worth grabbing later in drafts, as he's undervalued right now.  A true breakout candidate would be Davante Adams, he's also worth an add in the final rounds, could be a big-time steal.

Houston Texans - This is a team that never seems to have a good WR option outside of Andre Johnson. Could 2014 be the year where 2 Houston WR's go for over 1000 yards!? Maybe. Now, they drafted DeAndre Hopkins in the 1st round last year, and he grabbed 50 catches for 800 yards and 2 TD's his first year.  So obviously neither of the top 2 options can "breakout" because they're on the radar.  Johnson and Hopkins are even a bit over-valued currently, so I'm not looking at either of them in most of my drafts. Mike Thomas is penciled in as the slot guy, and likely won't be very relevant for fantasy purposes, so I don't see any breakouts in Houston.

Indianapolis Colts - So Reggie Wayne is back after major injury in 2013. He's being undervalued right now, so he's somebody to keep an eye on in your drafts. T.Y. Hilton is the new darling, and he's getting drafted before Wayne in all fantasy drafts.  Hilton is way over-valued right now.  Nicks is also a bit under-valued right now. Since there 3 WR's "on the radar", this leaves little room for a breakout. 

Jacksonville Jaguars - Gabbert is out, Henne is in at QB.  Shorts is the #1 guy, but he's always banged up. People are grabbing him as a WR4, which is fair. Marqise Lee is the rookie who might just surprise fantasy owners. He's the 71st WR coming off draft boards currently, so that's a low-end WR6.  This is encouraging, it means he's under-valued currently, and he could end up as a high-volume target simply because Shorts will miss games, and there's not a lot of competition at the WR position. Allen Robinson is another rookie WR to watch, but right now, I roll the dice on Lee.  Breakout candidate because he's under-valued, and you can grab him as the 60th WR off the board, before the other tools in your draft start to consider grabbing him. 

Kansas City Chiefs - Well, the only Chief WR getting drafted right now is Bowe. Nobody is biting on Avery and Jenkins.  That's mostly because nobody believes in Alex Smith as a passer.  I can't say that I think that a Chief WR will breakout in 2014, I just don't see it.

Miami Dolphins - So you have Mike Wallace, he's getting taken as a WR3.  Hartline is going as a high-end WR6.  He's somewhat under-valued in my opinion. Brandon Gibson is slated to be the slot guy. Since he missed the 2nd half of the season in 2013, he's off everybody's radar. Big opportunity for him to breakout if he plays all 16 games. Rookie Jarvis Landry could potentially unseat Gibson, so he's somebody that I don't think you can draft, but you better keep him in mind if Gibson gets injured again.

Minnesota Vikings - Listen, this is just one of those teams, where there's basically 1 fantasy player worth owning, and that's clearly Adrian Peterson.  Beyond that, these guys are all not ideal starters on your fantasy team. That said, yeah sure, there's a good chance that TE Kyle Rudolph could have a nice season. Depending on how good the QB does, he could have like 70 catches. Or, he could have 40 catches. We don't know for sure yet.  So as for who will be catching passes, it's be split between Jennings and Patterson. For me, Patterson is being overvalued right now. He has an ADP of 21 out of all WR's. I have him way lowing in my rankings.  Jennings ADP in like the 50's, while I have him ranked around the 40 mark.  So he's slightly undervalued right now, in my opinion. Plus Jerome Simpson will grab a handful of catches. So for me, I don't want any of these WR's as a starting WR on my team, they're all fantasy backups. But there are no breakouts here.

New England Patriots - Edelman is going as a high-end WR3. Amendola is going as a low-end WR4. Dobson is going as a borderline WR5.  Thompkins meanwhile is getting absolutely no love right now. He had 32 catches for 466 yards and 4 TD's in 2013 as a rookie, but he's being written off currently by almost everybody.  In my opinion, I don't think Dobson's foot will stay healthy, and I believe Thompkins will end up a starter at some point. But at this point, I don't feel good about taking a flier on him.

New Orleans Saints - Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham will be the go-to pass catchers again here in 2014. Lance Moore has departed, so he's not in the mix. Last year I said regarding their deep threat WR, "Keep your eye on this dude. Remember the name, Kenny Stills."  He didn't blow up as much as I hoped, but he did grab 5 TD's and 641 yards on 31 catches.  Now, they drafted Cooks, so he's going to be going off the board as like the 40th WR.  Stills is going off boards as around the 50th WR.  So, he's on people's radars.  A "hidden gem" in New Orleans? Doesn't seem so. They seem to be valued properly at this point. 

New York Giants - Well the Giants have an interesting situation, don't they? Victor Cruz has a current ADP as the 17th WR off the board.  Let's say he grabs 80 catches.  Eli will have like 320 completions, so down to 240 left.  The RB's will take like 50 of those, so 190 left.  The TE's will probably grab like 40.  So 150 catches left for the remaining WR's.  Randle has an ADP of 44, but he has a real shot at being undervalued. The rookie Beckham probably won't snag more than 30 or 40 catches. Ladies and Gentlemen, he's on our radar because he grabbed 700+ yards and 6 TD's last year, he's not a "breakout", but he sure is under-valued.  No breakout here, but grab Randle at a value pick, for sure.

New York Jets - Geno Smith should start over Vick. Eric Decker is the new #1, and is being drafted as a WR3. Hill is slated to be the #2 guy. It's his 3rd year, and if ever he could breakout, it's here in 2014. He's not being drafted currently. I have him ranked pretty low, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he really is flier-worthy.  This could be a breakout guy, he has appeal as a late-round flier that could pay dividends. Or, if he doesn't do anything the first few weeks, you may end up dropping him by week 3!

Oakland Raiders - With Schaub as the new QB, for once I am pseudo-interested in owning a Raider WR.  If possible, I'll avoid it, but...  Streater and Holmes, the #2 and #3, are not being valued.  Denarius Moore is barely being valued.  So one of these guys has an opportunity to be an 80 catch, 8 TD WR.  That would be "breakout" Holmes only though, because Moore and Streater are on our radars. Remember this: Holmes in week 13 had 7 catches for 136 yards.  That sounds like potential to me! Holmes as a late round flier sounds like a risk worth taking, if you have some gambler in ya!

Philadelphia Eagles - DeSean Jackson is gone. Maclin is back from IR as the #1 WR, and he's being drafted currently as a WR3, which sounds about right.  The TE's Celek and Ertz are gonna eat, and so is Sproles and Shady McCoy.  There will still be some love left, yes, but I think it will be evenly distributed between Cooper and Matthews.  Because they spread the love, I think they're all valued properly, and that we won't have a "breakout" here.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Antonio Brown is the man, and Emmanuel Sanders left town for Denver. Markus Wheaton is a rookie is getting taken as a WR6, that's way under-valued. You easily should consider him when you're trying to take a WR5, and there's a really good chance he'll be a solid WR3.  I see BREAK-OUT right here, since he only had 6 catches in 2013, and he's barely on people's radars in fantasy drafts.  But don't forget, Lance Moore is also in town as the #3.  He's not getting drafted in most drafts.  Even though he had 450 yards in 2013, he's been somehow forgotten since he switched teams. I see more upside with Wheaton, but Moore isn't a bad late-round flier either.

San Diego Chargers - Keenan Allen will get drafted high. Malcom Floyd falls into the #2, and is currently coming off the board as the 76th WR.  He's being valued as a WR7, but he has WR5 upside.  Eddie Royal, he doesn't intrigue me. I'll pass on a breakout option here.

San Francisco 49ers -  Michael Crabtree should be healthy this season, and is poised to bounce back.  But he's not under-valued, he's ranked as a WR2.  Boldin is going to get drafted higher than he should, so I'm likely avoiding him. And here's the thing, because Vernon Davis is here, that's 3 mouths to feed right there, so it's almost impossible that there can be a "breakout" guy in San Fran.

Seattle Seahawks - So Percy Harvin is back and will be highly sought after in fantasy drafts. Golden Tate is now in Detroit. Doug Baldwin is the #2, and Jermaine Kearse is the #3.  Color me not so enthusiastic about finding our guy in Seattle simply because they are such a "run first" team.  If I had to take a late-round roll of the dice on Baldwin or Kearse, it would probably be Kearse because I think he may get a bunch of TD's.  I don't know that he's our BREAKOUT guy, but he's certainly UNDER-VALUED, as he didn't even make ESPN's Top 80 list of WR's.

St. Louis Rams - I was intrigued by the Rams and their WR situation last year.  I thought Givens would be a good guy to target in later rounds, but he was pretty much a bust, so this guy is on my shit list.  Kenny Britt is now supposedly plugged in as one of their "starting" WR's, and he's currently ranked on ESPN as the 69th WR.  In drafts, people are taking him around round 15.  Tavon Austin is going a few rounds earlier. Now, if Britt remains healthy, and he is at least 75% of what he was in 2010 with the Titans, he could be highly UNDER-VALUED.  If you don't recall, he played 12 games in 2010 and scored 9 TD's. So he could even be our BREAKOUT guy, since he did nothing in 2013!  So forget Tavon Austin, forget Quick and Givens, take a shot on Britt. That assumes he doesn't jump up in the rankings between now and when you draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I don't know that you can really go after a Buc WR outside of Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Evans is probably over-valued at this point, as he's being taken as like the 40th WR.  Josh Freeman is out, so that's good news for Bucs pass catchers, as McCown comes in. Now, Louis Murphy is somebody to keep an eye on.  He was in Oakland for 3 years, then 1 year with the Panthers, and 1 year with the Giants. His first 2 years in Oakland showed potential, if he can get back to his roots, he might be able to thrive in the slot.  But chances are, he won't. So no breakout or under-valued guys to target in Tamba Bay.

Tennessee Titans - Locker is not exactly the best QB to be capable of producing a breakout WR. Kendall Wright is being drafted as a border-line WR3, sounds about right. Justin Hunter is being grabbed as a WR5, to me that could easily be an "over-value" situation, I have him ranked way lower.  And that leaves Nate Washington, who at age 31, will clearly be in decline, and not worthy of breakout status.

Washington Redskins - Well, let's see here, Garcon is a top 15 WR, and rightfully so.  DeSean Jackson is VASTLY over-valued right now, he's going way earlier than he should be.  Their TE Reed should get a bunch of targets, assuming he doesn't get any more concussions.  Andre Roberts, he's somebody that you'd think could have potential IF and only IF... RGIII is back to being the real RGIII.  If that happens, Roberts could be a bargain.  But I really have this gut feeling that Roberts won't make any noise this year. Santana Moss is still hangin around, and so I think these guys will both have 40 catches, 450 yards each. Meh.

If YOU have any "Breakout" candidates for us, leave them in the comment section!

(If you dig Mr. Addict's advice and insight in this article, VISIT http://www.fantasyfootballaddict.com/Announcements.html , and order the 2014 Draft Day Spreadsheet, and you'll be using the same draft tool that Mr. Addict uses in all of his drafts!)

Here's a peak at the main tab of an older draft spreadsheet BEFORE You draft...

Here's the same tab, after 4 rounds.  The players in YELLOW are the players you've drafted. The players in RED are those that other owners drafted...

And this is a quick look at the "Top 150" tab...

VISIT http://www.fantasyfootballaddict.com/ , and for FREE, order the 2012 Draft Day Spreadsheet, and draft like an ADDICT!

1 comment:

  1. I'm so glad I bought that spreadsheet this year. I looked like the smartest man in the room this year. I must admit I took some abuse for picks early on but when it all wrapped up I looked like a genius.